On a number of occasions I’ve joked that someone might win the Republican nomination by winning 20% of the vote. This, however, is not a actually a joke, it is a real possibility.
The Maine GOP field has five serious contenders right now, and if Steve Abbott follows through and does in fact run for the nomination, that would make six. (Sorry Martin Vachon, I’m not throwing you in the mix for what I think are obvious reasons.)
There is always a threat that some additional serious contenders could enter the race (Kevin Raye, or Josh Tardy, for example), but at this point in the game, I find that highly unlikely.
So, with either five or six serious contenders, we begin to ask ourselves, “just what WILL it take to win the GOP primary?”
That answer is one part research, one part analysis, and one part pure guessing. But political analysis is what we do here, so we’ll give it a shot.
To answer this question, we need to answer a few questions.
First, what kind of turnout are we likely to see in the primary next year? To answer this, we need only look at the past four primaries to see some targets:
As we can see, the average turnout for a Republican primary in the last four elections has been just a hair over 74,000 voters. But what does that mean for who will be coming to the polls this time around?
We should immediately take 1998 out of the equation. That was the year Angus King was running for re-election, and his victory was widely assumed. Going up against a very strong incumbent has a way of depressing both excitement and turnout for an opposition party. No one really thought any of the three sacrificial lambs would win, and Longley was really the only legitimate option anyway, so Republican voters weren’t exactly thrilled to go to the polls.
Take out that year, and turnout is more like 80,000.
But beyond that, look at 1994. This was the last time there was a real “wide open” race. 2002 saw a dominant candidate in Cianchette, and 2006 saw another campaign to unseat an incumbent. In the 94 election, roughly 90,000 voters came out for an eight way race to succeed outgoing Republican John McKernan.
Another thing to consider is primary turnout percentages. After all, the number of Republicans in a given election does vary by tens of thousands of voters, so percentage of voters showing does influence the raw numbers. In other words, if 25% of the Republicans in Maine showed up when there were about 280,000 registered Republicans, that would give you one number, but if you had the same percentage show up when there were more like 270,000 that would give you a different model.
Take a look at the numbers for the last four elections:
In the last four elections, turnout has averaged around 27% of registered Republicans. The caveat, much like the raw numbers, is that the 1998 race wasn’t a normal year and should probably be discounted. Without that year, turnout was more like 29%.
But, no matter how you look at it, this isn’t a “normal” year. Enthusiasm is likely to be high. Spending 16 years in the wilderness outside the Blaine House will likely energize the electorate, and the large number of choices will also give all wings of the party the ability to choose somebody who they identify with. What we will see is much more like 1994 than anything else.
There are currently 258,147 registered Republicans in the state of Maine. If we figure a 30-32% turnout rate, that will mean that somewhere between 77,000 and 83,000 GOP voters will be going to the polls.
For the purposes of this article, lets use the high figure to begin to narrow down what the eventual winner will need to do.
A Five Way Race
If things remain as they are now, and there are only five major contenders for the nomination, then the lowest possible total needed to win the nomination will be 20% (plus one voter) of that 83,000 figure. That means that no one will be able to win if they receive fewer than 16,600 votes.
To absolutely guarantee a candidate’s nomination, he will have to obtain at least 41,500 votes.
But let’s be serious, I see it as extremely unlikely that any of these candidates will obtain the nearly 42,000 votes necessary to win the nomination outright. The only person who has done that well in the last twenty years has been Peter Cianchette, and he was running in essentially a two man primary.
So what is the most likely scenario?
In 1994, the lowest number of votes that could have lead to a candidate’s nomination was 11,204. Collins secured 19,133 votes, as she edged out her next closest competition by about 5 percentage points- a 58% improvement over parity. In a field as wide open as this, I see something similar happening.
A 60% improvement over the mean – as Collins’ election secured – would represent 26,560 votes, or roughly 29.50% of the vote. Lets just round up then, to 30% of the vote and 27,700 votes.
Obtaining 30% of the vote when parity is at 20% would give any candidate a significant shot at winning the nomination. Consider this – if another candidate captured the same number of votes, that would mean that the other three candidates would each split only 13.33% of the vote each. That seems highly unlikely, as each of these candidates seem to have a base of support that would get them something significant. Even if one or two of them only pulled in 13% of the vote, I can’t imagine all three would.
Also consider that Chandler Woodcock won the 2006 nomination with only 27,025 votes. The idea that a primary with five candidates instead of three would produce a nominee with a larger raw vote share with fewer registered Republicans in the state seems highly unlikely.
So, in this scenario, and potential winner would need somewhere between 16,600 and 27,700 votes – can’t win with less than the first, and more than the second means you are almost guaranteed to win.
Personally I would aim for the high side of that total.
It is certainly possible one candidate is the “consensus” choice and secures more than 30%, but I wouldn’t put money on that if I were you.
A Six Way Race
If Steve Abbott enters the race – as I expect he will – that will give us six major candidates, and that alone changes the figures quite significantly.
With a sixth person in the race, that drops the parity level to 15,300 votes, and the standard 30% over mean figure to 24,480. That new target threshold would equal 27.20% of the vote for the winner, or just a hair over one in four voters.
Conclusions
Obtaining between 15,300 votes and 27,700 votes (depending on the scenario) is no small task, and will require not only a superior strategy (ie what voters you are going to try to pluck, from where, and how), but also an efficient and well oiled political machine. That will take great organization, and a decent amount of money.
Pine Tree Politics will be using this data for a series of follow ups. We will examine each major candidate (starting in January – so you have plenty of time to get ready), and chart out the path they will need to take to secure that number of votes. I’ve already started to put together some of my analysis, and I have to tell you, this will be an interesting series.
So, as the race solidifies, look to Pine Tree Politics for the strategy your favorite candidate will need to execute if he wants to win the nomination.