I am on record as believing that this election – at least with things as they are right now – is between Paul LePage and Eliot Cutler.  As things line up right now, I believe rather strongly that Libby Mitchell is the odd person out and might face a very Susan Collins circa 1994 problem:  an unenergized base, an uninspired campaign and a candidate who is elbowed out by two much more dynamic candidates.

Paul LePage will be the beneficiary of – at the very least – the most excited, passionate, energized and determined voters in this race.  There is no way he will be elbowed out of anything.  His victory or failure will be a factor of his appeal to the left of his party, and the unenrolled voters, and if he can get enough of them to “put him over the top”.

Libby Mitchell is going to be hampered by the now extremely apparent enthusiasm gap.  Democrats – as things stand right now – are nowhere near Republicans in terms of excitement and energy and likelihood of showing up in droves to the polls.

What is worse for her, independent voters are breaking for the right in big ways in state after state, so any chance of her making up the enthusiasm gap with independent voters will be extremely difficult.  Just to reinforce these ideas, simply look at the primary election, how utterly boring and unengaging the entire Democratic race was, the subsequent divided results, and the turnout of each party (Republicans swarmed to the polls in historic numbers, Democrats did not).

And none of this even touches on the fact that she is the antithesis of what voters want this year.  Career politicians, professional legislators, people who have been in power for years, and “the establishment” is getting slaughtered at the polls everywhere this year – in both parties.  Voters want fresh ideas, outsiders untainted by power, and a down to earth populism.  Democrats were insane to have nominated her in this particular election cycle.

So that leaves the man attempting to stradle the middle and forge a “third way” – Eliot Cutler.

The universe according to Cutler looks a little something like this:

• The right has nominated an extreme right wing ideologue who will turn off the more moderate and liberal wings of his own party, and will have a difficult time competing for the 40% of unenrolled voters
• The left has nominated an extreme left wing ideologue who will turn off the more moderate and conservative wings of her own party, and will have a difficult time competing for the 40% of unenrolled voters
• The middle, including elements in both parties, isn’t going to be very happy with the sharp edged extremism of these candidates, and a reasonable, experienced human being with credentials and a plan will be able to rally that middle, and capture 35-40% of the vote and win the election.

The results of these primaries have to be exactly what Cutler wanted when his team envisioned his path.  With what they consider two ideological magnets and a large number of people in between who aren’t exactly thrilled by either, the possibility of Cutler rallying those voters seems strong.

Setting aside the arguments which LePage and Mitchell supporters are undoubtedly having in their heads right now about how that view of the race is wrong – let us take that strategy and examine the biggest problem it faces.

Cutler’s fellow independents in the race.

It hasn’t received much attention to this point, but Cutler is not the only independent candidate who plans to compete in this race.  There are currently two others – Shawn Moody and Kevin Scott.

The reason they are important is the nature of the partisan candidates.  Paul LePage will have a strong, energized, unified base on a mission.  The marginals in the party this election who might vote for an independent or Democrat instead of LePage are a much much smaller number than say Susan Collins in 1994, which is what Angus King depended on in large part to defeat Brennan.  He has captured their imaginations and attention (obviously), and even though many of the more moderate elements may not be behind him, he isn’t going to lose any of most GOP voter demographics.  In other words, he has a much more unified, energized and strong base than 1994 saw.  The same goes for Mitchell and the left.

Thus, the “middle” that Cutler will be trying to get is a different set of voters than 1994.  King got plenty of traditional conservatives, and even some right wingers.  He also got plenty of hard core liberals and mainstream Democrats.  In this election, to win Cutler is going to have to basically unify the middle by itself.

That is made more difficult with every percentage point he loses.  The presence of Scott and Moody will make that much more complicated.

Let’s be clear – neither Moody or Scott is going to win.  I would be utterly shocked if either of them pulled 5% of the vote.  Kevin Scott, for example, will simply be drowned out by the other four candidates, because he has no political infrastructure and will not have the money (his goal is an insignificant $20,000 a month) to make up for that lack of infrastructure.

The bigger problem for Cutler will be Moody.  Moody has already loaned himself half a million dollars, and could absolutely be loaning himself more.  He has already started running ads, and is even flying airplanes promoting his candidacy.

I think – and this is just a gut call – that LePage is going to have 35% of the electorate guaranteed to go with him on election day based on party cohesion, enthusiasm and turnout in this particular cycle (this is the only cycle in memory I would give a higher guaranteed number to the Republican candidate for Governor of Maine than the Democrat).  I serious can not see any less that that number turning out for him.  I think Mitchell is likely to get somewhere in the neighborhood of 30% guaranteed, no matter what else happens.  Both candidates could absolutely get more than that, but I do not see either getting less.

That leaves roughly 35% of the electorate that can be rallied by the independent candidate.  In such a scenario, it will be entirely possible for an independent candidate to duke it out and squeak out a minor win.

But what happens with Moody pulling 3-4% and Scott pulling say 1% of the vote (which may be lowballing both, given that in 1994 a write-in candidate got 1.29%)?  That 35% immediately goes down to 30% available to Cutler, which would make it a great deal more difficult to win the general election.

Let me put more simply:  that 5% that they capture is very very unlikely to come from that solid, unified base of either of the partisan candidates, so it will almost certainly come from Cutler’s target base of voters.  By taking even a few percentage points from Cutler’s demographic targets, it makes it much harder for him to win.  Not impossible, but harder.

These numbers are all obviously hypothetical and speculative, and I am just using them to demonstrate the concept here.

It is early, and certainly things could change.  If LePage makes major mistakes and turns off large swaths of voters and kills their enthusiasm, that 35% I am currently assigning as a “guarantee” could most certainly go down.  If in the next few months the national environment significantly changes (huge drops in unemployment, large scale national events that re-engage voters with the Democrats, etc) and Democrats become more energized, that could bump up that 30% of guaranteed voters I assigned to Mitchell.

Regardless, winning this election is not going to be easy no matter who comes out on top.  But the solidified bases of each of the party nominees and the presence of Moody and Scott drawing from the resulting middle that Cutler really would like to draw on by himself, make is a bit harder for Cutler to pull it out.

And in any fracturing of the middle, even to a small degree, that greatly empowers the partisan candidates.  In the environment we are playing in this year, that has to make supporters of the more enthusiastic and motivated base (in this case, Republicans) happy.