Last Wednesday, PPP took a look at Senator Olympia Snowe’s standing in Maine – an interesting exercise given her national profile on the healthcare reform debate.

The results of the poll were rather striking.  70% of Democrats approve of her job performance while only 45% of Republicans approve of her.  As PPP points out, that means she has a higher approval among Democrats than several Democratic Senators they have polled in other other states.  The only Senators who perform worse in their own party are Jim Bunning and Roland Burris.

And there in lies the basis of what PPP says next.  They believe that Snowe may be forced to change parties before her next election in 2012, in order to avoid a primary fight that would knock her out of the Senate.

PPP explains:

Snowe may end up having no choice on whether to switch parties if she wants to get reelected in 2012. Among conservative Republicans, who tend to dominate primary electorates, her approval rating is only 31% with 59% disapproving of her. And specifically on the issue of health care just 19% approve of her actions with 65% disapproving.

The wrath of the Club for Growth eventually made renomination as a Republican impossible for Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania and it will be interesting to see if the same thing plays itself out in Maine.

There are a few problems with the logic of PPP, however.

First of all, Maine is not Pennsylvania.  The Maine Republican Party may be for all intents and purposes impotent, but they aren’t stupid.  They know that the Republican bench in this state is extremely thin, and even if a conservative Republican were to knock off Snowe in a primary, that person’s ability to win statewide would be in serious question. The state party would in all likelihood do whatever they could to dissuade a challenge to Snowe, for fear of a party switch (or successful primary campaign) from happening, and the seat being lost.

Additionally, finding a conservative Republican with a significant enough profile to actually mount a serious challenge would be difficult in the first place, because most state level GOP leadership view Snowe as untouchable.  There are no vocal anti-Snowe leaders in the Republican Party – in Pennsylvania, there were a plethora of anti-Specter leaders to draw from, many of which (such as Pat Toomey) were well known, powerful, and could mount a credible campaign.

And on top of that, Snowe has been one of the leading Republicans who has tried to dissuade moderates like Lincoln Chafee from abandoning the GOP, and has been vocal about the fact that Republicans did not have to lose many of the moderates it has.  On top of that, despite her squabble with conservatives, Barbara Boxer expressed how difficult it is to get her to switch:

“I’ve asked [Olympia Snowe]) a million times to become a Democrat,” said Senator Boxer. “But she really believes in the principles [of the Republican party].”

Things can change.  Arlen Specter himself once said he would never change parties, and did exactly that only months later.

But Maine isn’t Pennsylvania, and Snowe isn’t Specter.  I wouldn’t put money on it.