Last month, Rasmussen broke the ice on polling for the 2010 gubernatorial race and reported that Paul LePage had a 43% to 37% to 7% advantage over Libby Mitchell and Eliot Cutler, respectively.

Today, Rasmussen released another poll which reconfirmed LePage’s early lead in the race:

• Paul LePage – 39%
• Libby Mitchell – 31%
• Eliot Cutler – 15%

This shows LePage losing 4 points, Mitchell losing 6 points, and Cutler gaining 8 points.  LePage’s lead actually increased from six points to eight points, however Cutler’s gain has to be the most significant takeaway from the poll.

One of the most important things that stands in the way of independent candidates winning more elections nation wide is the viability wall.  In other words, if voters do not see other voters rallying around that unknown quantity that is the typical independent candidate, they will not view them as viable.  However, once an independent candidate starts getting within 10 or 15 points of winning the race, people start to consider them en masse, which can potentially lead to late breakers choosing the now insurgent campaign.

This, incidentally, is exactly what happened to Angus King in 1994.  Initial skepticism began to wash away as he crept up and voters saw him begin to be a legitimate threat to win.  He was able to overcome that usually impossible to penetrate viability wall, and was able to then capitalize on voter dissatisfaction and forge a winning coalition.

Still, LePage enjoys a 24 point lead over Cutler, and an 8 point lead on Mitchell, so we are nowhere near that point yet, and it remains to be seen if Cutler’s growth in this poll is a sign of growing support, or just a minor statistical blip.

Indeed, these numbers are frighteningly similar to the 1986 general election which saw Jock McKernan beat James Tierney and Sherry Huber.  In that election, McKernan won 39.9%, Tierney got 30.16% and Huber got 15.07%.

Spooky.

Also interesting in this poll is some of the other information they polled on:

Fifty-one percent (51%) in Maine favor repeal of the health care law, lower than support for repeal nationally. Nearly as many (45%) oppose repeal of the law. Those numbers include 41% who Strongly Favor repeal of the law and 33% who Strongly Oppose repeal.

LePage earns 68% support from those Strongly Favor repeal, while Mitchell earns support from 53% who Strongly Oppose.

Fifty-two percent (52%) in Maine favor the passage of an Arizona-like immigration law in their state, while 31% would be opposed to such a law in Maine. This, too, is lower than support for an Arizona-like law nationally.

LePage earns 60% support from those who favor passing a similar law in Maine, while Mitchell picks up 54% from those who are opposed.

Fifty percent (50%) of all voters in the state disagree with the U.S. Justice Department’s decision to challenge the law, compared to 56% nationally. Thirty-nine percent (39%) in Maine agree with that decision.

LePage is viewed Very Favorably by 26% of Maine voters and Very Unfavorably by nine percent (9%).

Mitchell earns Very Favorable reviews from 20% and Very Unfavorables from 18%.

Cutler’s ratings are nine percent (9%) Very Favorable and nine percent (9%) Very Unfavorable.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

Most voters in Maine (58%) support offshore oil drilling, and 48% also support deepwater drilling.

While 36% rate President Obama’s response to the massive oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico as good or excellent, slightly more (40%) rate his performance as poor.

The companies directly involved with the rig that exploded causing the Gulf leak, British Petroleum (BP) and Transocean, earn good or excellent reviews from just 17% of Maine voters for their response to the leak. Nearly half (48%) rate the companies’ response as poor.

Only five percent (5%) in Maine rate the U.S. economy as good or excellent, while 46% say it as poor. Thirty percent (30%) believe economic conditions are improving, but 41% say they are getting worse.

Sixty-three percent (63%) in Maine believe the U.S. economy is currently in a recession.

The number of voters in Maine (36%) who think the $787 billion economic stimulus plan passed last year has helped the economy outnumbers the the amount who thinks it hurt the economy (26%).