I have heard the same thing repeated in Republican circles for a few months now, but the cries have been getting louder lately.

“You mean to tell me that we can find seven solid candidates to run for Governor, but we can’t find anyone to run against Chellie Pingree?”  The same phrase is repeated for Mike Michaud as well.

Ignoring for a moment that both CD-1 and CD-2 do in fact have Republicans running against the Democratic incumbents, the fact does remain that an untested – but quality – bench of Republicans in the state of Maine is currently fighting amongst themselves over one office, when they could in fact be spreading their talent around.   The shame in it is that quality candidates who could likely be competitive or win in races for the State Senate or either congressional district are currently all in the same spot, and 6 out of 7 of them will lose.

I have heard it from all circles, and supporters of virtually all the different campaigns:

• “Steve Abbott could have easily won the first district, and is really the only Republican who could have done it!”
• “Paul LePage could really take on Mike Michaud, and he could win!”
• “Bruce Poliquin is uniquely positioned to take on Chellie Pingree!”
• “Peter Mills would be very hard to beat in the second district!”
• “Matt Jacobson is exactly the kind of Republican who can beat Pingree!”

Granted, I haven’t heard those same things said about either Otten (probably because he gave money to Pingree) or Beardsley, but for the rest, those calls have been getting louder.

The prospect of a crowded primary field, and the identification of some actual political potential in these people has many Republicans bummed out that they are putting all their eggs in one basket.  Rather than competing state wide in every office with a number of different talented individuals, they seem to be going for a “Blaine House or bust” strategy, to the detriment of the other races, most notably the two congressional seats.

Making the calls louder for some of the candidates to drop out and switch races is of course the national environment.  Democrats are depressed, indepdendents are angry, and Republicans are energized – so if anyone is going to knowck off either Pingree or Michaud, this is probably the year that it has to happen.

Particularly among the first district Republicans, I am hearing borderline anger that no one (save Dean Scontras – who everyone seems to have already written off as unable to win) is stepping up to the plate to knock off Chellie Pingree.  The logic goes that if nobody takes her out now, she will be in Congress as long as she wants, and will be Maine’s next U.S. Senator the moment Olympia Snowe or Susan Collins retires – a prospect that scares the living bejesus out of Maine Republicans.

Outrage is brewing that a candidate isn’t filling that hole – particularly Steve Abbott who nearly everyone I have spoken to seems to think could have had the seat easily this year if he wanted it.  Poliquin and Jacobson would both have a more difficult time against Pingree – or at least that is the chatter I hear – but either one of them has a profile and specific talents that could bring her down.

But the same chatter is being directed at the second district Republicans.  Mike Michaud has only faced one serious challenge, and this year will undoubtedly be his most difficult race since he faced off against Kevin Raye – so why have we attracted only one candidate to face him (Jason Levesque)? 

Paul LePage has exactly the profile and reputation that could catch fire in the second district – a legitimate francophile who has been homeless, been on welfare, and knows exactly what it is like to face economic hardship – just like many of the voters in CD-2.  In addition, he seems to be the consensus choice of the libertarian/tea-party activists – limited as they may be – while simultaneously having succeeded on Democratic turf multiple times.  Similarly Peter Mills has great appeal among the second district that he could easily tap into.

As it stands right now – discounting the advantages and struggles some candidates may be facing in the gubernatorial primary, every candidate has roughly a 14.29% chance at winning the nomination, all things being equal.  For some candidates who may be viewed as underdogs, that 14.29% is actually lower – in some cases (like Beardsley, for example) it is much lower.

Will any of these candidates start doing the math, and come to the conclusion that their success in the gubernatorial primary will be unlikely, prompting them to move to a more favorable situation?

Color me doubtful.  I’ve talked to every campaign, and each one – and I mean this literally – is convinced that they are going to win the nomination, and that the chips are going to fall in their direction.  To switch races, a candidate would need to make that decision as soon as possible, so they can mount a credible primary challenge to the single candidate in either race – and I see no indication of that happening.

But should they?  Should the GOP candidates intentionally cut down on the field and flip into different races?

The activists certainly think so – it is all I have heard over the course of the last month.

What matters, however, is what the candidates think, and what the candidates want.  So – personally, I do not expect to see or hear any announcements any time soon.

One wonders, though – on the day after the primary, will any of those six unsuccessful candidates look back on the race with regret, and ask themselves, “could I have done myself, my party, and my state a better service by taking on Pingree/Michaud instead?”

We can only guess.