This is a question that I have been giving a great deal of thought over the course of the last couple weeks.

I have argued – more than once – that I felt Maine was a somewhat libertarian state.  In other words, one that had a people who were rugged individualists who had a fiscally conservative outlook, but who had a “live and let live” attitude about social issues.  In other words, the typical “socially liberal, fiscally conservative” archetype that is usually associated with a libertarian bend.

On election day this year, that belief of mine got smacked in the face.  Twice.

First of all, the gay marriage question showed that at least on one issue, Maine remains somewhat socially conservative.  But that could still be misleading – it was an off year election, and even among socially liberal communities, gay marriage is hardly a settled question.  I actually know several people who consider themselves libertarian who do not support gay marriage.

But more devastating to my underlying theory was the result of question 4 – TABOR.  This question would have provided a rather telling statement to the state government that the people of Maine were tired of high taxes and irresponsible spending.  What we saw was quite the opposite – TABOR was rejected by an overwhelming margin.

So did this mean that the voters of Maine are not of the fiscally conservative mold?  Does this mean voters are happy with the level of spending and taxes?

A first look at those numbers would suggest that the state is far more tolerant of fiscal extravagance than I thought.  However, I have been talking to several people on both sides of the political spectrum on this question, and I have begun to believe that this question told us next to nothing about the Maine voter’s opinion on spending and taxes.

It may sound counter-intuitive given the nature of the question, but I think the logic holds.  It goes a little something like this:

Maine voters have indicated for years that they are sick of higher taxes, and aren’t exactly thrilled with higher spending and vast waste coming out of Augusta.  The question on people’s minds when they considered question 4 was not if they felt that taxes and spending was out of control, but instead it was whether or not TABOR was an appropriate way to address that problem.

And the Maine voter said, “no it is not”.  They did not reject the idea that taxes and spending is too high – they rejected TABOR as the solution to that problem.

Why?

Maine voters want leadership and judgment – they do not want a computer algorithm essentially deciding what we spend and what we tax.  The voters felt that TABOR was a rigid, restrictive way to fight the problem of government growth and excess.  They felt it would tie the hands of lawmakers and local officials, which would do more damage than it would do good.

That does not mean Maine voters do not see taxes and spending as a problem, it just means they didn’t think TABOR was the answer.  People do not want math formulas making decisions about school funding, or tax levels – what they want is quality, strong leadership to simply make better decisions.

So, for me, the jury is still out on the psyche of the Maine voter.  I still believe they are basically anti-tax and low spending folks, and their vote on question 4 is not indicative of anything other than a rejection of computer models deciding state finances.