For the better part of today, I have been reading reactions among the right to the news of Dede Scozzafava’s withdrawl from the NY-23 race. Probably the most oft repeated commentary I have seen is that the developments of this race once again prove that, "moderate Republicans rarely succeed, and true conservatism wins every time".
Scozzafava dropping out is indeed a great thing for the conservative movement. It represents a victory for the grassroots activists on the ground over a disconnected and out of touch Republican establishment. But the analysis that says this proves "conservatism wins every time" is woefully misplaced, extremely lazy, and not at all grounded in reality.
This notion is an extension of rhetoric that has been used by Rush Limbaugh for years. It has gained popularity as the "true conservative" (whatever that means) base has grown frustrated with what it sees as "squishy moderates" losing in national elections. We heard it endlessly following John McCain’s defeat in 2008, and had heard it previously when Bob Dole lost to Bill Clinton in 1996.
But the reality is very different. This increasingly popular notion is simply false, and lets take a look at why.
Since World War II, the Republican Party has run sixteen presidential campaigns. It has won nine of those campaigns and lost seven:
- 1948 – Moderate Thomas Dewey (Loss)
- 1952 – Moderate Dwight Eisenhower (Win)
- 1956 – Moderate Dwight Eisenhower (Win)
- 1960 – Moderate Richard Nixon (Loss)
- 1964 -True Conservative Barry Goldwater (Loss)
- 1968 – Moderate Richard Nixon (Win)
- 1972 – Moderate Richard Nixon (Win)
- 1976 – Moderate Gerald Ford (Loss)
- 1980 – True Conservative Ronald Reagan (Win)
- 1984 – True Conservative Ronald Reagan (Win)
- 1988 – Moderate George HW Bush (Win)
- 1992 – Moderate George HW Bush (Loss)
- 1996 – Moderate Bob Dole (Loss)
- 2000 – Moderate George W. Bush (Win)
- 2004 – Moderate George W. Bush (Win)
- 2008 – Moderate John McCain (Loss)
Haggle about my definitions if you wish – but lets just say I am pretty comfortable labeling each of these men as I have put forth above. The only one I even find debatable is George W. Bush – but that is mostly because he talked like a "true conservative" in 2000, but acted completely differently once in office, and the only bit of "true conservatism" in his administration was a large tax cut, and high defense spending.
Anyway, back to the issue at hand. Republican moderates have a remarkable habit of winning nationally. The only times they lost, they tended to have non-ideological reasons for losing.
In 1948 Truman outlfanked Dewey with his whistlestop tour of America, connecting with the average American. In 1960, Nixon went up against the transcendent John Kennedy, blew the campaign big time in the televised debate, and still probably won that election, were it not stolen by Kennedy’s electoral shennanigans. In 1976, Ford angered the country by pardoning Nixon. In 2008, the entire country hated the Republican party, and Abraham Lincoln probably would have lost.
Every single one of those moderate losses – with the exception of McCain, and to some degree Dewey – were in extremely narrow elections that were decided by essentially one state.
Transversely, the only "true conservative" elected to the White House since World War II was Ronald Reagan. Barry Goldwater got slaughtered, and every other "true conservative" couldn’t even make it out of the primary. Reagan’s election is often pointed to as proof of concept on this theory, but was it about ideology? No – in 1980 it was about economic malaise and American hostages, and in 1984 it was about an economic resurgence under Reagan’s leadership.
Could "true" conservative candidates have won in ‘48, ‘52, ‘56, ‘60, ‘68, ‘72, ‘76, ‘88, ‘92, ‘96, ‘00, ‘04 or 08? It is certainly possible, but if they did, it wouldn’t have been because of their ideology.
This same analysis applies to more than just national elections. Moderate Republicans often win crushing victories, and "true conservative" candidates often go down in flames. But the opposite is also true – often moderates get absolutely spanked, while conservatives dominate. Far too often we think elections are about ideology simply because we believe deeply in something, when they very rarely are.
But even if they are, the evidence in the last sixty years shows us that being a moderate does not even come close to dooming one’s candidacy, and being a conservative hardly means you "win every time".
The victory of the conservative grassroots in rejecting Scozzafava in favor of Hoffman is a great thing. I applaud it. I happen to belong to a wing of the party that is fiscally to the right of Reagan, so I am hardly arguing for us to turn to moderates to solve our electoral problems here.
My problem is cheap, dime store analysis that is devoid of logic or rationality. We should argue for more conservative candidates where more conservative candidates can win – but going with the superficial and inaccurate echo chamber soundbites like "conservatism wins every time it is tried" as the accepted explanation for an eventual Hoffman victory simply cheapens the conversation.
If we want to win, we need to understand why we win, and why we lose. Such nonsensical rhetoric does not help us in that regard, so I suggest we stop saying it. Real political analysis deserves better.